By Larry Quick
Fourth of a series
The previous article is at thevoice.us/kane-county-hospital-covid-19-admissions-low
In this week’s article we will consider the accuracy of Illinois Department of Public Health (IDPH) confirmed case statistics. Does the number of “confirmed cases” accurately reflect a true picture of COVID-19 illness in Illinois?
The United States Center for Disease Control (CDC) maintains an influenza data base known as ILI Net. The Influenza Division at CDC collects, compiles and analyzes information on influenza activity year-round in the United States. Approximately 100 public health and more than 300 clinical laboratories throughout 50 states, Puerto Rico, Guam, and the District of Columbia, participate in virologic surveillance for influenza.
To provide a graphic picture of the flu season, as it progresses from its start in October, through its end in April (and beyond), the CDC has created the ILI activity map. ILI stands for influenza-like-illness and tracks Influenza A, Influenza B, SARS-Cov-2 and any other influenza-like-illnesses. To use the ILI activity map visit gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/main.html
All 50 states are included in the ILI Activity Map. Why is the ILI Activity Map an important resource for Illinois State and county health officers, as well as elected government officials to consult?
Because symptoms for influenza and COVID-19 are virtually identical in the early stages of disease, the ILI activity map will pick up and present medical treatment activity, for patients with active symptoms for both influenza cases and COVID-19 cases. With all the new COVID-19 cases recently reported by the IDPH, one would expect a significant level of influenza-like-illnesses reflected on the ILI activity map. Is this the case?
Each day the IDPH reports 1,000 to 2,000 new confirmed cases of COVID-19. For the week that we are considering, August 2-8, IDPH reported 12,222 new COVID-19 cases. If all of these newly-confirmed COVID-19 cases represented sick patients, with active influenza-like symptoms, one would expect the CDC Activity Map for Illinois to reflect a noticeable change. Did the ILI activity map for Illinois reflect a noticeable change in influenza-like-illnesses, for the week of August 2-8? No, it did not. The week of July 26 through August 1 was statistically unchanged, as was the week before that, and the week before that, and the week before that, going back an additional nine weeks to the week ending May 9.
For the past 14 weeks ending August 15, Illinois has been Dark Green on the ILI activity level map. On the 13-level scale, dark green represents the lowest possible level of influenza-like-illnesses for a seven day period. Yet each week the IDPH posts around 10,000 newly-confirmed COVID-19 cases. Where are all of the sick and infectious COVID-19 patients in Kane County and the rest of Illinois?
To get the most from this article, I highly recommend checking out the CDC’s influenza-like activity map at gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/main.html
Continued at thevoice.us/variations-may-make-it-difficult-to-assess-covid-19-deaths