By Larry Quick
Third of a series
The second part is at thevoice.us/covid-19-positive-tests-meaning
How closely do positive COVID-19 lab tests match actual COVID-19 illness in Illinois? This week we will focus on Kane County statistics for positive COVID-19 lab tests, and compare them with Kane County hospital admissions, for individuals experiencing COVID-19-like illnesses. Statistics for Kane County are compiled by the Illinois Department of Public Health and can be found at: dph.illinois.gov/countymetrics?county=Kane
At the time of this writing, the most recent Kane County data cover the week of August 2-8.
In recent weeks we have been told that COVID-19 is ravaging the Nation, case numbers are surging and governors are imposing strict statewide measures to stop the spread of COVID-19. In Illinois, governor JB Pritzker recently issued a “COVID-19 Warning” to Kane and several other Illinois counties. This warning suggests, that additional restrictions may be imposed on our social and economic life, should Kane County positive COVID-19 lab tests, continue to exceed a weekly predetermined limit, 50 new cases per 100.000 residents per week. Kane County’s current population is close to 550,000 residents.
During the week of August 2-8, IDPH reported that Kane County experienced 105 positive COVID-19 lab tests per 100,000 residents. This approximates 600-700 additional confirmed COVID-19 cases for the entire County, for the week. How many patients were admitted that week to Kane County hospitals, suffering from COVID-19-like illnesses? That week, 34 patients were admitted to hospital. Some of these patients may have been suffering from a disease other than COVID-19, but with influenza-like symptoms. The close similarity between COVID-19 and flu symptoms must be stressed.
One would expect that with all the positive COVID-19 lab tests each week, Kane County would have hundreds of new COVID-19 patients evidencing influenza-like symptoms and seeking medical care. Symptoms can include a cough, fever, body aches, and fatigue. What constitutes a confirmed COVID-19 case in Illinois? Do IDPH confirmed cases require a physician’s examination, one or more positive COVID-19 lab tests, or even a CT scan (an x-ray like image) of the patient’s lungs? For IDPH, all that is required is a single positive COVID-19 lab test. How accurate are the COVID-19 lab tests?
Swiss immunologist Dr. Beda Stadler has this to say about coronavirus lab tests: “So if we do a PCR coronavirus test on an person immune from previous exposure, it is not a virus that is detected, but a small shattered part of the viral genome. The test comes back positive for as long as there are tiny shattered parts of the virus left. Even if the infectious viri are long dead, a coronavirus test can come back positive, because the PCR method multiplies even a tiny fraction of the viral genetic material enough to be detected. It is likely that a large number of the daily reported infection numbers are purely due to viral debris. The PCR test with its extreme sensitivity was initially perfect to find out where the virus could be. But this test cannot identify whether the virus is still alive, i.e. still infectious.”
Continued at thevoice.us/questions-arise-on-state-covid-19-statistical-accuracy